Weather Forecast

 

Temperature

 There is a slightly enhanced chance of more frequent cloudy and cool spells compared to recent summers prior to 2007. Nevertheless, mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average

Precipitation

 Our forecasting methods continue to suggest that rainfall for the summer as a whole is more likely to be either near, or above average. 

Background

  The forecast for Summer 2008 has been derived using global forecasting models and statistical methods. It is important to be aware of subsequent updates when new information may change the forecast emphasis.

The main feature of Summer 2007 was the high rainfall experienced in many regions, especially during June and July. For parts of England and Wales, notably the Midlands, it was the wettest summer since the national and regional rainfall series began in 1914. Temperatures last summer were near the 1971-2000 average. However, against the background of warming climate, Summer 2007 was relatively cool – the coolest since 1998.

Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Summer, in this context, is defined as the months of June, July and August. Seasonal trends affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.